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a single wave would in any other case happen within the closed economic system. If agents don’t internalize the specter of infection, bigger deaths in a extra unhealthy nation increase its relative wage, thus producing a form of general equilibrium social distancing. Once brokers internalize the specter of infection, the more unhealthy nation usually experiences a discount in its relative wage by way of particular person-degree social distancing. Incorporating these individual-level responses is central to producing giant reductions within the ratio of trade to output and implies that the pandemic has substantial results on combination welfare, by way of each deaths and reduced features from commerce. Using at present out there data we develop a benchmark state of affairs that finds that a publicly-imposed social distancing rule to curb the spread of COVID-19 ought to be implemented for 12 weeks. We additionally identify alternative eventualities where the shorter period social distancing programs seen throughout the United States could also be efficient. Our approach is novel in that it accounts for uncertainty in transmission of the illness and the potential for permanent economic effects of social distancing rules. The social distancing rule is treated as an asset whose profit is uncertain due to the inability to predict the
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