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The presentation illustrates the idea of the brand new fuzzy good judgment technique to forecast thunderstorms up to 6 hours with the aid of using a mixture of COSMO-DE version facts. Additionally the utility on a few instance instances and a evaluation with the inner COSMO-DE thunderstorm possibility may be proven in conjunction with a complete statistical evaluation for the summer time season duration of 2012. An extra a part of the PhD observe will awareness on sure enhancements like tuning of the bushy good judgment gadget (e.g. with the aid of using one of a kind weighting of the parameters) and a “fine member selection” gadget for the COSMO-DE EPS version. The very last purpose is to encompass the brand new forecasting approach into DLR’s WxFUSION gadget, an user-orientated included forecasting gadget for air traffic. Radar hail signatures at C-band are ambiguous. In numerous research (Vivekanandan et al., 1990), it changed into suggested that differential reflectivity values of rain-hail combinations will be better than five dB. This end result is contrasting with S-band radar observations wherein differential reflectivity values near zero dB are anticipated. Due to a excessive spatial and temporal variability of hailstorms, it’s miles very tough to offer enough floor-reality observations to validate those measurements.
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