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They made an estimate on February 24. February 24. So it’s the middle of the first quarter. The second quarter would start on April 1, they are mid late second first quarter on February 24, when the coronavirus pandemic was spreading widely in Italy and shutting down a number of cities. They said that it will be 2.7% growth of US GDP in the second quarter. Now, only a couple of weeks later on March 15. They changed their estimates from 2.7% growth to 5% decline 5% decline, that’s a huge change. That’s a 7.7% change in three weeks. That’s pretty bad. But only a few days later, on March 20, they made another prediction that it would be a 24% decline 24% decline. So it went from a 5% decline to a 24% decline. That’s a really bad 19% change, you know, really, really bad. Obviously, better estimates. Obviously, Goldman Sachs made some bad decisions around the pandemic. Lots of people made bad decisions, and most were caught unprepared and still continue to make some bad decisions around the pandemic, because they underestimated the threat and still continue to underestimate the threat of the pandemic, the consequences of the pandemic. So they were caught unprepared. And they had to turn to their business continuity plans, that emergency business continuity plan, so I chose to turn to them, even though these plans are not a good fit for the situation. I mean, I’m someone who’s a future proofing expert, and risk management expert. I’ve done a lot of business continuity plans and the typical business continuity plan is not a good fit for this sort of situation. Why is that? Because they’re great for emergencies. Emergencies like one to two week emergencies when there’s a hurricane when there’s a blizzard. That’s great. That’s what they’re fit for. But COVID-19 is not an emergency. That’s not what it’s about. It’s a major disrupter. And that’s how you should think of it. That’s how it needs to be thought about some major disrupter of our lives or worlds. It changed our path going forward. It’s not a short term emergency. It’s a slow moving, high impact long term train wreck. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. So relying on business continuity plans that are meant for a short term emergency led a number of companies into serious serious problems and led a number of people who live in the emergency to continue with your plans business continued plans into a number of serious problems. What we have to understand is that as a result of this major disrupter of COVID-19 This is a path changer. It is very much about changing the world will not go back to what it was the world will change forever, even after the pandemic You know, we’ll have years of a pandemic, by the time it’s over, of course, you know, it’s already been over a year and it will be definitely much further before the pandemic is over. It will Chim in the main many months. And that’s the pandemic here, the US globally, where we don’t, where there’s not nearly as quick a vaccine or logical will still be longer, will have changed people’s habits, this pandemic will change people’s values, their desires, their norms, their behaviors, will never go back to the world of January 2020, no matter how much we might want to. And that’s something that we need to fundamentally understand about the pandemic, and the kind of bad decisions, these cognitive biases that we make around it. And this is not easy to hear
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