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the curve by confining 90% of the inhabitants for 4 months to eradicate the virus. The flatten-the-curve policy would scale back the confinement to 30% of the population for 5 months, followed by almost one yr of free circulation of the virus to realize herd immunity with out overwhelming hospitals. Both methods yield a complete value of around 15% of annual GDP when combining the financial cost of confinement with the worth of lives misplaced. I show that hesitating between the 2 strategies can have a huge societal price, specifically if the suppression coverage is stopped too early. Because seniors are far more weak, a simple advice emerges to shelter them as one deconfines young and middle-aged people so as to construct our collective herd immunity. By doing so, one reduces the death toll of the pandemic together with the financial price of the confinement, and the whole price is split by a factor 2. I additionally present that increasing the mass testing capacity to display screen individuals despatched again to work has a large profit underneath various scenarios. This analysis is very dependent upon deeply unsure epidemiologic, sociological, financial and moral parameters. framework. The paper argues that, when a illness has an incubation interval, explicitly accounting for the exposed compartment is important in this class of epidemiological models. An important benefit of the proposed identification technique lies in its ease to put into practice by other
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