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period and temperatures rise faster. Goodwin did use an energy-balance model, but it was extended with more fitting parameters and using more data. A linear model only estimates one parameter, so although the fitting period extends over 100+ years, EBM can’t resolve the recent more-rapid rise in temperatures. Otto uses a 19’th century baseline, similar to L&C, so not surprising that results are similar to L&C. I do agree that aerosals are becoming less important. Per my comment above, since 1970, Amazing custom your name united states air force warrior all over printed shirt GHG forcing has predominated over aerosal forcing by roughly 10 to 1. My TCR estimates are up-to-date and are made quite simply by dividing the average rise in temperature by the average rise in man-made forcing using post-1970 data only. Over recent decades, tempertures are rising faster than predicted by EBM and more in-line with climate models. And which of the models match the pattern effect of moving aerosol emissions around? Should we not then declare the models that don’t match that pattern are wrong? The models broadly disagree with each other on climate sensitivity,

 

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